schema_version: '1.2'
paper:
  paper_id: spatansemenescundfeelingcertaintyshiftiness
  citation: Spatan, S., & Semenescu, A. (2024). Feeling of Certainty and the Shiftiness of Knowledge Utterances. https://doi.org/10.4396/2024205
  short_label: Spatan & Semenescu 2024
  doi: 10.4396/2024205
  published: 'Yes'
  year: 2024
  language: English
  language_other: null
  research_objective: Test whether (i) confidence correlates with knowledge-ascription ratings and (ii) stakes/error-possibility
    effects on knowledge ascriptions occur only when assessors feel uncertain about the target proposition.
  data_availability:
    data_available_online: null
    url: null
    notes: null
  notes: TEI header provides DOI and submission dates (Received 29 07 2024; accepted 05 12 2024) but no imprint date; extracted
    Markdown includes a likely spurious 'Published on February 10, 2014' line.
studies:
- study_id: 1
  label: Study (Prolific; Error × Stakes; certainty grouping via trivia + confidence)
  language: English
  language_other: null
  objective: Examine whether stakes (low vs high) and explicit error-possibility mention influence agreement that a first-person
    knowledge utterance is true, and whether such 'shiftiness' depends on the assessor's feeling of certainty about the target
    proposition.
  sample:
    n_final: 883
    recruitment: Prolific
    recruitment_other: null
    compensation: money
    compensation_other: null
    characteristics: 64.2% female, 35% male, 0.8% other, while in terms of age was 25.8% 18-24 years, 35% 25-34 years, 20.9%
      35-44 years, 12.7% 45-54 years, 5.6% 55-64 years, 0.8% 65-74 years, and 0.1% 75-84 years
    mean_age: null
    provenance:
      page: 5
      quote: A total of 889 participants were recruited via Prolific Academic and compensated financially… resulting thus
        in a final sample of 883 persons.
  design: Between-Subjects
  design_other: '2 (error: error-possibility mentioned vs not) × 2 (stakes: high vs low)  x 2 certainty (Certain vs Uncertain)
    operationalized via trivia accuracy plus a 1–5 confidence rating, between-subjects'
  manipulated_factors:
  - 'Error-possibility mention: mentioned vs not'
  - 'Certainty grouping: trivia accuracy + confidence rating (Certain vs Uncertain)'
  paradigm: Agreement that a sentence is true
  paradigm_other: null
  scale:
    label: Likert 7-point
    points: 7
    anchors: 1 = strongly disagree; 2 = disagree; 3 = somewhat disagree; 4 = neither agree nor disagree; 5 = somewhat agree;
      6 = agree; 7 = strongly agree
    direction: Higher numbers indicate stronger agreement that Tracy's statement is true (higher knowledge ascription).
    provenance:
      page: 9
      quote: 'Knowledge ascription… was assessed with one item on a 7-point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree… 7 = strongly
        agree): "Please rate how strongly you agree or disagree that Tracy''s statement, ''I know that the capital of [Lithuania
        / France] is [Vilnius / Paris]'', is true".'
  measures:
    knowledge_question_text: Please rate how strongly you agree or disagree that Tracy's statement, 'I know that the capital
      of [Lithuania / France] is [Vilnius / Paris]', is true.
    knowledge_question_first: null
    additional_question_text: "Before scenario: “Which of the following cities is the capital of France/Lithuania?”\r\nAfter\
      \ scenario: On a scale from 1 (not confident at all) to 5 (very confident), how confident are you that the capital of\
      \ Lithuania [France] is Vilnius [Paris]?"
  scenarios:
  - scenario_code: other
    scenario_type: Geography oral exam / world-capitals vignette (Tracy answers what the capital of Lithuania/France is).
    high_stakes_text: 'High stakes: strict rule of failing anyone who answers incorrectly; failing implies losing scholarship
      and moving schools.'
    low_stakes_text: 'Low stakes: answering correctly yields an unimportant small globe prize.'
    provenance:
      page: null
      quote: 'Low stakes: "it is not very important for Tracy that she receive such a globe." High stakes: "If Tracy does
        not pass the exam, she will lose her scholarship… It is therefore very important for Tracy that she answers correctly."'
  effects:
  - effect_id: s1_e1
    subgroup: 'Uncertain, low error: Low vs High stakes (U_LE_LS vs U_LE_HS)'
    subgroup_desc: Knowledge ascription rating (agreement that Tracy's first-person knowledge statement is true); Uncertain
      participants; no explicit error possibility mentioned.
    design: Between-Subjects
    design_other: null
    moderators:
      scenario: other
      skeptical_pressure: 'No'
      awareness: 'No'
      evidence: External
      attribution_person: First Person
      evidence_reliability: High
    moderators_coding:
      scenario:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: The scenarios concerned a student, Tracy, who was taking a geography oral exam.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The vignette is a geography oral-exam / world-capitals scenario, which does not match the predefined bank/peanuts/bridge/typos
          categories.
      skeptical_pressure:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: 'LOW_EX: Tracy is taking a geography oral exam… Based on her rigorous and in-depth research, Tracy confidently
            tells the professor, "I know that the capital of Lithuania is Vilnius".'
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: In the low-error vignette, no explicit possibility of error is introduced to undermine the target proposition.
      awareness:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: '"Unbeknownst to Tracy"'
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Tracy is not aware
      evidence:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy… bought a huge political map of the world that she studied very carefully for the last two weeks, reviewing
            every world capital.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Tracy's evidential basis is studying an external information source (a political map), held constant across
          conditions.
      attribution_person:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy confidently tells the professor, "I know that the capital of Lithuania is Vilnius".
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The target knowledge utterance is a first-person self-ascription ('I know that…').
      evidence_reliability:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy… bought a huge political map of the world that she studied very carefully…
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: map
    contrast:
      group_high: U_LE_HS
      group_low: U_LE_LS
      sign_convention: d = mean(low) - mean(high)
      other_notes: 'Table 5 stakes contrast within Uncertain + low-error conditions: Con 1 (U_LE_LS) vs Con 3 (U_LE_HS).'
    groups:
    - group_id: U_LE_LS
      label: null
      n: 96
      mean: 5.41
      sd: 1.23
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 1 (U_LE_LS),96,5.41,1.23
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    - group_id: U_LE_HS
      label: null
      n: 96
      mean: 5.63
      sd: 1.15
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 3 (U_LE_HS),96,5.63,1.15
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    effect_size:
      metric: SMD
      d: -0.184769596817
      v: 0.020923174923
      computed_from: groups
      needs_review: false
      notes: Computed from Table 5 group stats in analysis/effect_sizes.qmd (method=between_groups).
    quality_flags: []
    notes: null
  - effect_id: s1_e2
    subgroup: 'Uncertain, high error: Low vs High stakes (U_HE_LS vs U_HE_HS)'
    subgroup_desc: Knowledge ascription rating (agreement that Tracy's first-person knowledge statement is true); Uncertain
      participants; explicit error possibility mentioned.
    design: Between-Subjects
    design_other: null
    moderators:
      scenario: other
      skeptical_pressure: 'Yes'
      awareness: 'No'
      evidence: External
      attribution_person: First Person
      evidence_reliability: High
    moderators_coding:
      scenario:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: The scenarios concerned a student, Tracy, who was taking a geography oral exam.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The vignette is a geography oral-exam / world-capitals scenario (not bank/peanuts/bridge/typos).
      skeptical_pressure:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: It goes without saying that even political maps like the one bought by Tracy might sometimes contain mistakes.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The high-error vignette explicitly introduces an error possibility (map may contain mistakes), increasing
          skeptical pressure.
      awareness:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: '"Unbeknownst to Tracy"'
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Tracy is not aware
      evidence:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy… bought a huge political map of the world that she studied very carefully for the last two weeks, reviewing
            every world capital.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Tracy's evidential basis is studying an external information source (a political map).
      attribution_person:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy confidently tells the professor, "I know that the capital of Lithuania is Vilnius".
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The knowledge utterance under evaluation is a first-person self-ascription ('I know that…').
      evidence_reliability:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: It goes without saying that even political maps… might sometimes contain mistakes.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: map
    contrast:
      group_high: U_HE_HS
      group_low: U_HE_LS
      sign_convention: d = mean(low) - mean(high)
      other_notes: 'Table 5 stakes contrast within Uncertain + high-error conditions: Con 4 (U_HE_LS) vs Con 2 (U_HE_HS).'
    groups:
    - group_id: U_HE_LS
      label: null
      n: 105
      mean: 5.2
      sd: 1.39
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 4 (U_HE_LS),105,5.20,1.39
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    - group_id: U_HE_HS
      label: null
      n: 96
      mean: 5.04
      sd: 1.38
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 2 (U_HE_HS),96,5.04,1.38
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    effect_size:
      metric: SMD
      d: 0.115503856238
      v: 0.019973996645
      computed_from: groups
      needs_review: false
      notes: Computed from Table 5 group stats in analysis/effect_sizes.qmd (method=between_groups).
    quality_flags: []
    notes: null
  - effect_id: s1_e3
    subgroup: 'Certain, low error: Low vs High stakes (C_LE_LS vs C_LE_HS)'
    subgroup_desc: Knowledge ascription rating (agreement that Tracy's first-person knowledge statement is true); Certain
      participants; no explicit error possibility mentioned.
    design: Between-Subjects
    design_other: null
    moderators:
      scenario: other
      skeptical_pressure: 'No'
      awareness: 'No'
      evidence: External
      attribution_person: First Person
      evidence_reliability: High
    moderators_coding:
      scenario:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: The scenarios concerned a student, Tracy, who was taking a geography oral exam.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The vignette is a geography oral-exam / world-capitals scenario (not bank/peanuts/bridge/typos).
      skeptical_pressure:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: 'LOW_EX: Tracy is taking a geography oral exam… Based on her rigorous and in-depth research, Tracy confidently
            tells the professor, "I know that the capital of Lithuania is Vilnius".'
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: In the low-error vignette, no explicit possibility of error is introduced.
      awareness:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: '"Unbeknownst to Tracy"'
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Tracy is not aware
      evidence:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy… bought a huge political map of the world that she studied very carefully for the last two weeks, reviewing
            every world capital.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Evidence comes from an external information source (a political map), held constant across conditions.
      attribution_person:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy confidently tells the professor, "I know that the capital of Lithuania is Vilnius".
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Participants evaluate a first-person self-ascribed knowledge utterance ('I know…').
      evidence_reliability:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy… bought a huge political map…
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: map
    contrast:
      group_high: C_LE_HS
      group_low: C_LE_LS
      sign_convention: d = mean(low) - mean(high)
      other_notes: 'Table 5 stakes contrast within Certain + low-error conditions: Con 5 (C_LE_LS) vs Con 7 (C_LE_HS).'
    groups:
    - group_id: C_LE_LS
      label: null
      n: 123
      mean: 6.93
      sd: 0.33
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 5 (C_LE_LS),123,6.93,0.33
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    - group_id: C_LE_HS
      label: null
      n: 126
      mean: 6.92
      sd: 0.27
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 7 (C_LE_HS),126,6.92,0.27
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    effect_size:
      metric: SMD
      d: 0.033207864478
      v: 0.01606882155
      computed_from: groups
      needs_review: false
      notes: Computed from Table 5 group stats in analysis/effect_sizes.qmd (method=between_groups).
    quality_flags: []
    notes: null
  - effect_id: s1_e4
    subgroup: 'Certain, high error: Low vs High stakes (C_HE_LS vs C_HE_HS)'
    subgroup_desc: Knowledge ascription rating (agreement that Tracy's first-person knowledge statement is true); Certain
      participants; explicit error possibility mentioned.
    design: Between-Subjects
    design_other: null
    moderators:
      scenario: other
      skeptical_pressure: 'Yes'
      awareness: 'No'
      evidence: External
      attribution_person: First Person
      evidence_reliability: High
    moderators_coding:
      scenario:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: The scenarios concerned a student, Tracy, who was taking a geography oral exam.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The vignette is a geography oral-exam / world-capitals scenario (not bank/peanuts/bridge/typos).
      skeptical_pressure:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: It goes without saying that even political maps like the one bought by Tracy might sometimes contain mistakes.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The high-error vignette explicitly introduces a possibility of error (map may contain mistakes).
      awareness:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: '"Unbeknownst to Tracy"'
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Tracy is not aware
      evidence:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy… bought a huge political map of the world that she studied very carefully for the last two weeks, reviewing
            every world capital.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: Evidence comes from studying an external source (political map).
      attribution_person:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: Tracy confidently tells the professor, "I know that the capital of Lithuania is Vilnius".
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: The target knowledge utterance is first-person ('I know that…').
      evidence_reliability:
        provenance:
          page: null
          quote: It goes without saying that even political maps… might sometimes contain mistakes.
          tei_id: null
          table_ref: null
        reason: map
    contrast:
      group_high: C_HE_HS
      group_low: C_HE_LS
      sign_convention: d = mean(low) - mean(high)
      other_notes: 'Table 5 stakes contrast within Certain + high-error conditions: Con 8 (C_HE_LS) vs Con 6 (C_HE_HS).'
    groups:
    - group_id: C_HE_LS
      label: null
      n: 117
      mean: 6.87
      sd: 0.88
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 8 (C_HE_LS),117,6.87,0.88
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    - group_id: C_HE_HS
      label: null
      n: 124
      mean: 6.86
      sd: 0.4
      se: null
      provenance:
        page: 10
        quote: Con 6 (C_HE_HS),124,6.86,0.40
        tei_id: null
        table_ref: camelot_stream_p10_t1.csv
    effect_size:
      metric: SMD
      d: 0.014773087422
      v: 0.016611981254
      computed_from: groups
      needs_review: false
      notes: Computed from Table 5 group stats in analysis/effect_sizes.qmd (method=between_groups).
    quality_flags: []
    notes: null
  notes: null